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Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

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ixida
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by ixida on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:32 am

Nice job, Telnic!
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by HosterStats on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 5:06 am

The drop seems correct. The .tel zone count was 213,239 on 01/January/2014 and it was 187,022 yesterday. That's a drop of 26,217. However there were 1417 new domains in the zone since then. At first glance, it seems that a lot of XN-- IDNs (26,131) have dropped but only 1503 non IDNs.

Regards...jmcc
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by TelBlogger on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 6:10 am

A Telgeddon!
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Tim Spears
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Tim Spears on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 7:47 am

Goodbye, Tel:

All-time high: 333,891 registered domains (March 2011)

25th January 2014: 212,622 registered domains
26th January 2014: 186,736 registered domains (-25,886)
27th January 2014: 148,418 registered domains (-38,318)
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by HosterStats on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 7:55 am

The bulk of the domains dropped today are IDNs. 38,345 drops of which 38,286 are IDNs.

Regards...jmcc
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by TelBlogger on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 9:16 am

Jumpin' gee-hosa-fat!
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 11:40 am

Tim Spears wrote:All-time high: 333,891 registered domains (March 2011)

25th January 2014: 212,622 registered domains
26th January 2014: 186,736 registered domains (-25,886)
27th January 2014: 148,418 registered domains (-38,318)

64,204 reg losses in 2 days !

Telnic, don't you think your customers, who have invested so much time and money in the last 4+ years to keep .tel afloat, deserve an explanation from you TODAY ?

http://MikeSeaton.tel


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by HosterStats on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 11:49 am

mikeseaton wrote:
Tim Spears wrote:All-time high: 333,891 registered domains (March 2011)

25th January 2014: 212,622 registered domains
26th January 2014: 186,736 registered domains (-25,886)
27th January 2014: 148,418 registered domains (-38,318)

64,204 reg losses in 2 days !

Telnic, don't you think your customers, who have invested so much time and money in the last 4years to keep .tel afloat, deserve an explanation TODAY ?

http://MikeSeaton.tel

Those are primarily IDN domains being dropped. This kind of IDN bubble and the subsequent burst is a feature of most gTLDs where IDNs are added as a feature. There's an initial speculative bubble and when those domains can't be flipped or developed, they are dropped within a few years. Sometimes there's a secondary effect where the domains dropped after the first year are reregistered by speculative domainers down the foodchain and then dropped a year or two later. IDNs tend to work best in a ccTLD rather than a gTLD other than .COM TLD. The non-IDN registrations are relatively steady and the .tel has the characteristics of a small, managed ccTLD. Of course in percentage terms losing 30% of the zone in about 72 hours looks dire but Junk Dumps (where highly speculative and non-traded domains are dropped) always hit TLDs hard. Some registries introduced IDNs to boost registration figures and there is almost always a bursting of that IDN bubble a few years later. It is hard (from my point of view working with nameservers,websites and IPs) to quantify the effects of the losses because DotTel doesn't really have nameservers and websites in the traditional sense thus it is more difficult to see how these drops are affecting the overall health of the TLD.

Regards...jmcc
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:03 pm

@HosterStats - thanks for the explanatory post - do you work for HosterStats.com ?

It looks like with IDNs rapidly disappaearing we will get a truer picture of the attractiveness of .tel domains.

I thought the post The Rise & Fall of the .Tel Project reflected a fairly bleak, but realistic, outlook - but now it is looking like GAME OVER FOR .TEL (see PS) !

http://MikeSeaton.tel

PS. At least with Telnic Ltd. running the show !


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by HosterStats on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:27 pm

mikeseaton wrote:@HosterStats - thanks for the explanatory post - do you actually work for HosterStats.com ?

It looks like with IDNs rapidly disappaearing we will get a truer picture of the attractiveness of .tel domains.

I thought the post The Rise & Fall of the .Tel Project reflected a fairly bleak, but realistic, outlook - but now it's looking like GAME OVER FOR .TEL !

http://MikeSeaton.tel
Yes. I built it and run it.) :)  I don't know if it is quite game over for .tel because small ccTLDs (which it resembles) tend to have their own dynamic. One of the most important is the level of brand protection registration. They tend to be renewed year after year. Technically, the TLD is an elegant solution but the problem is that it is an answer to a question that few have asked. Without a brand champion to drive registrations, the TLD has not grown like other TLDs and people might be basing their expectations on seeing how other TLDs have grown.

If you look at the 1.5M or so .co registrations, the figure looks impressive. But a web usage survey shows that the TLD is far from developed. The bulk of that 1.5M or so is on holding pages or PPC landing pages (Godaddy's landing page for undeveloped domains is the largest single destination for that ccTLD). There are more .co websites that are redirecting to websites in other TLDs than there are developed .co websites. The advantage of .tel is that it has development built into the model. The problem for Telnic was that ICANN bureacracy got in the way. The startup rates generally apply to the Land Rush period when a registry opens for general registration. However most new TLDs will get a major part of their first year's registration in the six months after that date. The problem with those ICANN applications is that every new TLD applicant makes projections and the market rarely turns out like they planned.

Regards...jmcc
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Tel Germany on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:30 pm

Oops! .tel is disappearing!
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:30 pm

With the last of the $35,000,000 investment being used up rapidly it really is time now for Kash to pick up the phone and ask Afilias if they "Wanna buy a gTLD ?".

Here's their contact details - Just Do It please !

http://MikeSeaton.tel


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Tim Spears on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:35 pm

HosterStats wrote:Some registries introduced IDNs to boost registration figures and there is almost always a bursting of that IDN bubble a few years later.

True; the same happens to .asia right now.
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Toptel on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:45 pm

TelChina registered approximately 90,000 .tel domains in January 2011, but most of them remained unused.
I don't know the purpose for which the domains were originally registered in the first place, but it appears to be the right thing not to renew those unused domains.
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:51 pm

Toptel wrote:TelChina registered approximately 90,000 .tel domains in January 2011, but most of them remained unused.
I don't know the purpose for which the domains were originally registered in the first place, but it appears to be the right thing not to renew those unused domains.

Have a look at the January 12, 2011 Press Release  (listed in latest date first order) at http://telnic.org/media-pressrel.html for further info.

http://TelChina.tel, mentioned in the PDF format press release, is now a personal rather than business site.

http://MikeSeaton.tel


Last edited by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:59 pm; edited 1 time in total


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Toptel on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 12:57 pm

mikeseaton wrote:Have a look at the January 12, 2011 press release (listed in latest date first order) at http://telnic.org/media-pressrel.html for further info.

IMHO that doesn't explain why TelChina registered so many domains, because I doubt they have been registered by endusers:
HC International to provide .tel names to clients through TelChina
The registrations appear to have been bulk registrations by TelChina.
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Tim Spears on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 1:01 pm

mikeseaton wrote:http://TelChina.tel, mentioned in the PDF format press release, is now a personal rather than business site.

The domain telchina.tel was dropped by Telchina and later registered by an individual (not related to Telchina).
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 1:06 pm

Here's the full press release for those without a PDF reader:

HC International to provide .tel names to clients through TelChina
LONDON, United Kingdom – January 12, 2011 – Telnic Limited (http://telnic.tel), the
Registry Operator for the award‐winning communications‐focused .tel top level domain
(TLD), and TelChina (http://telchina.tel), its strategic partner in China, today announced
that HC International (www.hc360.com ‐ HK8292), a leading B2B E‐commerce and
traditional marketing services provider in China, has begun providing .tel names to its
170,000 clients on the Southwest Operations Centre platform.
Lucy Wang, CEO of TelChina explained: “We’re pleased that HC International is the first
leading service provider in China to incorporate .tel names into its E‐commerce services.
With the growing importance of an online presence for business and increasing use of
the mobile web, providing .tel names will enhance discoverability, accessibility and the
reputation of their clients, both in China and abroad.”
With over 10 million registered members in more than 32 industries, HC International is
a leading B2B E‐commerce service provider in China. HC International will begin
providing .tel names to its 170,000 small and medium‐sized businesses on its Southwest
Operations Centre platform in stages. Businesses will benefit from .tel names bundled
with their current HC International services, enabling their business to be found in a
cross‐platform environment as well as improving their communications effectiveness by
offering customers different communications choices through .tel, including mobileoptimized
micro‐sites.
Khashayar Mahdavi, CEO of Telnic Limited, said: “We are confident that 2011 will be an
exciting year for TelChina and .tel, given the rapid adoption that they are experiencing
from organisations such as HC International. We fully anticipate an accelerated take‐up
of .tel names from E‐commerce, online marketing and telecommunications companies
in the region as the success of this and other deals become apparent."
‐ ENDS ‐

About HC360
Founded in 1992, www.hc360.com (HK8292) is a leading B2B E‐commerce service
provider in China. In December 2003, it successfully listed on the Growth Enterprises
Market (GEM) of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and became the first listed
mainland company in information services industry and B2B electronic commerce
services industry. At present, it has over 10 million registered users and serves up to 8
million buyers in more than 32 industries, making itself the most influential e‐commerce
service provider in China.

About Telnic: http://about.telnic.tel
About TelChina: http://telchina.tel
#####
Media Contacts: Justin Hayward, Telnic Limited http://justin.tel
Celine Yang, TelChina http://celineyang.tel

http://MikeSeaton.tel


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by 4444 on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 1:20 pm

mikeseaton wrote:With the last of the $35,000,000 investment being used up rapidly it really is time now for Kash to pick up the phone and ask Afilias if they "Wanna buy a gTLD ?".

The lower the sales figures, the lower the takeover price of the entire TLD. It's better to wait until registrations will fall under 100k.
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 1:34 pm

4444 wrote:
mikeseaton wrote:With the last of the $35,000,000 investment being used up rapidly it really is time now for Kash to pick up the phone and ask Afilias if they "Wanna buy a gTLD ?".

The lower the sales figures, the lower the selling price of the entire TLD. It's better to wait until registrations are below 100k.

Delaying the inevitable is Better For Who ?

The Shareholders - NO - with the new gTLDs coming on stream the .tel gTLD could be viewed as yesteryear's (or yesterdecade's if there is such a word) gTLD.

The Directors - NO - leave it much longer and the last bit of the $35,000,000 investment in Telnic will become dangerously low to pay their salary and expenses.

The Staff - NO - they are not going to hang around for long once they see the writing on the wall unless a potential buyer is rapidly on the scene.

End Users - NO - they are already confused with 2 completely different .tel offerings (Telnic subdomain .tels & Telnames single-page .tels) - uncertainty generally discourages user investment of that most valuable commodity called time.

Domainers & Developers - NO - every week more and more decide it's not worthwhile hanging around with constantly falling reg totals meaning a rapidly diminishing marketplace.

So better for who, apart from the buyer who gets the .tel gTLD dirt cheap ?

http://MikeSeaton.tel


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by 4444 on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 2:18 pm

mikeseaton wrote:So better for who ?

mikeseaton wrote:the buyer who gets the .tel gTLD dirt cheap

The only alternative would be to develop this TLD, but this project was canceled in 2011.

I see a benefit in waiting and doing nothing: it will force Telnic to sell this TLD (because of the lack of money to continue the operation). And that can be only good, because a buyer like Afilias won't neglect it again.
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Mon 27 Jan 2014, 9:15 pm

A thread which tries to work out what is going on at TelChina can be found at http://www.teltalk.org/t684-telchinatel

Tim Spears wrote:All-time high: 333,891 registered domains (March 2011)

25th January 2014: 212,622 registered domains
26th January 2014: 186,736 registered domains (-25,886)
27th January 2014: 148,418 registered domains (-38,318)

After 30% (64,204 as % of 212,622) of registered .tels  were dropped in just 2 days you would have thought Telnic would make a statement explaining it !

http://MikeSeaton.tel[/b]


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by Tim Spears on Tue 28 Jan 2014, 7:47 am

Back to normal: continuously falling registrations with the usual number of drops (114 yesterday)!
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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by mikeseaton on Tue 28 Jan 2014, 10:55 am

Tim Spears wrote:Back to normal: continuously falling registrations with the usual number of drops (114 yesterday)!

There's nothing "normal" about the situation now facing Telnic !

Given the high prices charged by TelChina it seems reasonable to assume that the wholesale price received by Telnic for a TelChina .tel was at least equal to that achieved elsewhere, probably more.

So Telnic Ltd., who haven't made a profit in their 15 years of existence, have now lost at least 30% of their annual renewal income !

If I was a Telnic employee I'd recognise that the writing was on the wall and get out now - it's always easier to get another job if your company is not shedding labour leaving you with no choice in the matter.

This is not scaremongering - just "stating the bleeding obvious" - as John Cleese of Monty Python and Fawlty Towers fame would say !

The money is running out fast - FACT (check the company accounts to see for yourself) and there appears to be no buyer waiting to take over - I would be delighted to be proved wrong about this !

Here's a couple of ex-Telnic employees who've gone on to better things - Fiona McKeown (used to be CFO) and Nadya Morozova (handled user liaison) - both were good at their jobs at Telnic.

Keep an eye on LinkedIn profiles and you may spot some leavers in the next few months - I've worked in the software industry long enough to recognise a sinking ship when I see one.

I STILL BELIEVE IN THE .TEL CONCEPT (USING THE DNS TO DELIVER AUTOMATED SOFTWARE SERVICES) BUT SOMEONE OTHER THAN TELNIC LTD NEEDS TO BE THE CATALYST THAT DELIVERS IT TO THE MASSES !

End of post - back to the real world now !

http://MikeSeaton.tel

PS. For "Telnic" read "Telnic/Telnames" of course.


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Re: Groundbreaking crash at Telnic

Post by GoTel on Tue 28 Jan 2014, 3:58 pm

4444 wrote:
The lower the sales figures, the lower the takeover price of the entire TLD. It's better to wait until registrations will fall under 100k.

This should happen in Mar/Apr 2014.
The 5-year anniversary of .TEL General Availability should see the first drop below initial registration figures in 2009.
We're almost there now ....

http://registrarstats.com/TLDHistoryChart.aspx?TLDName=TEL

Sad, sad, sad.  Too bad they just didn't put in a real directory.

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